How our forecasts held up.
Every Daily Scoop writes down what we expect in La Porte for the next few days. After each day ends, this page checks it against what the La Porte airport's weather station actually recorded. We never change a forecast after it's posted, and when we get something wrong, we say so below.
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The last 30 days
Checking the airport's records…
What we said, and what happened
| Day | We said | La Porte airport recorded | How it held up |
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The same-morning forecast
Our Hard Hat Weather crew calls go out by 5 AM, from the forecast for that same day. Every morning at about 5 AM we save what the National Weather Service said for the day, and since Oct. 2, 2026 our blend of NWS and four computer models too. Saved once, never changed, and checked against the La Porte airport with the same rules as above (the high within 3°F; the rain call for the day and the night after it).
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| Day | Said at 5 AM | La Porte airport recorded | How it held up |
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Our morning call for the lake
Every morning at about 5:30 we make the Shore Call for Washington Park, Long Beach, Mount Baldy and the Michigan City harbor: swim, piers and small boats, and in winter the lake-effect snow band. The next morning we check it against the Michigan City buoy and lighthouse. Saved once, never changed. The rules.
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| Day | We called | What was measured | How it held up |
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What we said, and what the districts did
The School Delay Watch on our home page says “delays unlikely,” “delay possible” or “closing possible” for the next school morning, from the Weather Service forecast for La Porte. It never says a school is closed: only the districts decide. We save the call as it stood at 8 p.m. the night before and check it against what La Porte County’s six public school districts actually did.
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| Morning | We said the night before | What the districts did | How it held up |
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How it’s graded: a morning’s outcome is the biggest step any of the six districts took: open, a delay, or closed (an e-learning day counts as closed). Our call’s step is “delays unlikely,” “delay possible” or “closing possible.” The same step: held up. One step off: partly. Two steps off: missed. We log what the districts did by hand from their own announcements, every morning the watch flagged and every morning a district delayed or closed, in our public log on GitHub.
When we got it wrong
If a Daily Scoop says something that turns out to be wrong, we add a dated correction to that post and list it here. The original forecast stays as it was, so you can judge for yourself.
The rules
- Which forecast counts: each day is checked against the last Daily Scoop that went live before that day began in La Porte. Posts published on the day itself don't count, and every post records the time it went live.
- Temperatures: a forecast high or low holds up if the airport's reading was within 3°F of it. A range is scored from its middle, so “upper 40s” (47–49°) counts as 48° and gets no extra room. We compare with the highest and lowest temperatures of that calendar day. The airport station reports whole degrees Celsius, so readings can be off by up to 1°F.
- Rain (any precipitation, including melted snow): when we gave a 50% or higher chance, at least 0.01 inch should have fallen. At 20% or lower, it should have stayed dry. Chances from 21% to 49% are toss-ups, so they aren't scored.
- Where it's measured: the automated weather station at La Porte Municipal Airport (KPPO), through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's public archive of airport observations. The station reports rain only when its gauge measures some, so a day with no report counts as dry, but only if we can double-check it against the South Bend and Valparaiso airports. If either of them has no data that day, or both measured at least 0.10 inch, we don't score the rain call.
- Missing data: if the La Porte station has no temperatures for a day, that day isn't scored, and it's labeled that way below.
- No quiet edits: we never change a forecast after it's posted. When we're wrong, we add a correction instead. Every post and every change to one is saved, with its time, in our public post history on GitHub, so you can check.
- Limits: one weather station can't capture a whole county. A storm can soak one side of town and miss the airport. This is a simple, honest check, not an official verification.
Observations: Iowa Environmental Mesonet, La Porte (PPO) station page · Forecasts: the Daily Scoop, which cites the National Weather Service.