Showers and a few storms this afternoon and tonight, then a dry, cool weekend

Update, 2:43 p.m.: Still dry so far, and warmer than forecast: 79 and clear at the La Porte airport at 2:15. The rain is still on the way. The Weather Service expects about an inch, give or take, by Friday morning from rich Gulf moisture, with the heaviest downpours tonight. Flood Watches are already up to our west in Lake County and around Chicago. Out west, a record-strength El Niño is fueling the Pacific hurricanes behind this week's flooding in New Mexico and Texas; the latest El Niño numbers are on our World Disaster Watch page.

Today (Thursday): rain showers likely before 4 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely, cloudy, with a high near 77 and a southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain is 70%, and NWS says a tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible. Tonight brings the main rain: showers and thunderstorms (90%), a low around 55 as the wind turns north at 5 to 10 mph, and a half to three quarters of an inch possible. At 5:15 a.m. the La Porte airport reported cloudy skies and 64 degrees, with the dew point also at 64 and a nearly calm wind. If you're out tonight, expect heavy downpours in spots; slow down on wet roads and never drive into water covering the road.

Friday: a chance of showers before 6 a.m. (30%, with another tenth to a quarter of an inch possible), then mostly sunny and cooler, with a high near 63 and a north wind around 10 mph. Added up, the NWS forecast for La Porte comes to about seven tenths of an inch to 1¼ inches from today through early Friday. Then it stays dry for days: clear Friday night with a low around 42, sunny Saturday with a high near 65 (low around 43 Saturday night), sunny Sunday with a high near 67 (low around 45), and sunny Monday with a high near 61. Monday night is the chilly one, clear with a low around 38, then sunny Tuesday with a high near 63. The next slight chance of a shower (15%) is Wednesday afternoon.

What changed since yesterday's Scoop: the rain looks lighter and ends sooner. Today's chance is 70% (from 80%), with a tenth to a quarter of an inch (from a quarter to a half), and the high rose to 77 (from 73). Tonight stays at 90%, with a low of 55 (from 56) and a half to three quarters of an inch (from three quarters of an inch to an inch). Friday's showers now end before 6 a.m. instead of lasting into the early afternoon, the chance fell to 30% (from 70%), and the high is 63 (from 64). The NWS total through Friday fell to about seven tenths of an inch to 1¼ inches (from 1¼ to 2 inches for the same stretch). The weekend changed little: Sunday's high is 67 (from 65), and Monday night's low is 38 (from 37). This morning NWS Northern Indiana forecasters say a cold front will push the rain that has sat just to our north and west south through the area today and tonight; any storms should stay weak, but heavy downpours are possible, and overall flood concerns appear low. They expect dry weather with highs in the 60s this weekend into next week, with Tuesday morning the coldest, in the upper 30s, and suggest getting furnaces tuned up for the season. Yesterday we said a high of 73; the La Porte airport got 64.

Right now there are no watches, warnings, or advisories for La Porte County, northern or southern, and none for Porter or Lake counties next door. The Weather Prediction Center (part of the National Weather Service) has La Porte County in a Slight Risk of flooding rain from 7 a.m. today to 7 a.m. Friday (at least a 15% chance); NWS Northern Indiana notes that most of its area is in the lower Marginal Risk, with the Slight Risk mainly in its western counties, which include ours. There's no flooding-rain risk for La Porte after Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has La Porte in its general thunderstorm area today, meaning storms are possible but not expected to be severe, and it expects no severe storms anywhere in the U.S. today through Saturday.