Rainy through midday Friday, heaviest Thursday night, with flooding possible in low spots

Today (Wednesday): rain showers and mostly cloudy, with a high near 68 and a south wind 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain is 90%, and NWS says a tenth to a quarter of an inch is possible; forecasters expect the best chance of showers near Lake Michigan in the middle and late afternoon. At 6:55 a.m. the La Porte airport reported cloudy skies and 59 degrees, with the dew point also at 59 and a nearly calm wind. Tonight: showers likely (70%), cloudy, with a low around 62 and a south wind 5 to 10 mph, and another tenth to a quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: showers likely before 5 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms, with a high near 73, a south wind around 5 mph, and an 80% chance of rain; a quarter to a half inch is possible. Thursday night brings the heaviest rain: showers and thunderstorms (90%), a low around 56, a west wind around 5 mph, and three quarters of an inch to an inch possible. Friday: showers likely before 2 p.m. (70%, with another quarter to half inch possible), then partly sunny, with a high near 64 and a north wind 5 to 10 mph. Added up, the NWS forecast for La Porte comes to about 1½ to 2½ inches from today through Friday afternoon. Then it dries out and cools down: mostly clear Friday night with a low around 43, sunny Saturday with a high near 65, mostly sunny Sunday (high near 65), and sunny Monday with a high near 60, with a chilly low around 37 Monday night.

What changed since yesterday's Scoop: the rain arrives sooner and heavier. Today's chance jumped to 90% (from 30%) and its high fell to 68 (from 73). Tonight rose to 70% (from 20%), with a low of 62 (from 63). Thursday rose to 80% (from 60%) and now includes thunderstorms later in the day, and its high fell to 73 (from 76). Thursday night rose to 90% (from 80%), with a low of 56 (from 57), and Friday rose to 70% (from 50%). NWS rain amounts went up as well: a quarter to a half inch Thursday (from a tenth to a quarter) and three quarters of an inch to an inch Thursday night (from a half to three quarters). Yesterday, NWS Northern Indiana forecasters expected around an inch for most locations and no significant flooding. This morning they point to the Weather Prediction Center's Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall later today and Slight Risk for Thursday, and they still don't expect severe weather. The dry, cooler weekend is still on track.

Right now there are no watches, warnings, or advisories for La Porte County. Next door, NWS Chicago issued a Hydrologic Outlook at 3:59 a.m. for Lake and Porter counties in Northwest Indiana and much of northern Illinois. It says several waves of rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are likely through Thursday night, with 1 to 3 inches of rain on a widespread basis, and that repeated rounds of rain over saturated soils may flood low-lying and poor drainage areas and raise area rivers. The outlook means higher water is possible but not yet certain, and flood watches, warnings, or advisories could follow. For La Porte County, the Weather Prediction Center (part of the National Weather Service) has a Marginal Risk of flooding rain today (at least a 5% chance) and a Slight Risk from Thursday morning into Friday morning (at least a 15% chance). Today is a good day to clear leaves from gutters and storm drains. If you come to a flooded road, turn around: NWS notes that 12 inches of rushing water can carry away most cars. The Storm Prediction Center has no severe storm risk for La Porte today through Friday; on Thursday, La Porte is in its general thunderstorm area, meaning storms are possible but not expected to be severe. Today's severe risk areas are over the southern Plains and parts of Kansas and southern Nebraska.