Foggy start, then dry and warmer through Wednesday — rain likely Thursday

Today (Monday): a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 a.m. for southern La Porte County, where visibility may drop to a quarter mile or less, and a Special Weather Statement covers the whole county, including La Porte and Michigan City, for fog and locally dense fog this morning. At 6:15 a.m. the La Porte airport reported fog, a quarter mile of visibility, and 46 degrees, so if you're driving early, slow down, leave extra following distance, and use your low beams. Areas of fog linger until about 10 a.m.; after that, it's mostly cloudy, then gradually sunny, with a high near 71 and a light north wind around 5 mph this afternoon. Tonight: partly cloudy, low around 50.

Tuesday: mostly sunny, high near 74, with a calm morning and a south wind around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday night: mostly cloudy, low around 56. Wednesday: partly sunny and warmer, high near 77, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday night: mostly cloudy and mild, low around 64, with a 20% chance of showers after 1 a.m. If you have outdoor work or projects, Tuesday and Wednesday are the dry days to get them done.

What changed since yesterday's Scoop: Wednesday went from a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms to a dry, partly sunny day, and its high rose to 77 (from 72). Wednesday night's chance fell to 20%, and only after 1 a.m. (from 50%), and Tuesday night's 20% chance of showers is gone. Today, tonight, and Tuesday each came in a degree warmer (71, 50, and 74). Thursday is now the one clearly wet day: showers are likely, with an 80% chance (up from 70%), a possible thunderstorm after 1 p.m., and a high near 74 (from 70). Thursday night rose to 60% (from 50%), while Friday eased to 30%, before 1 p.m. (from 40%). Yesterday, NWS Northern Indiana forecasters said the air looked too stable for much thunder and pointed to later Friday through Sunday for any heavy rain. Today they say thunderstorms are possible Thursday but severe weather and heavy rain are not expected, and while their confidence beyond Thursday is low, the forecast trends cooler and drier after that.

Right now, a Dense Fog Advisory covers southern La Porte County until 9 a.m., and a Special Weather Statement for fog and locally dense fog covers the whole county this morning. There are no watches or warnings. The Storm Prediction Center has no severe storm risk for La Porte today through Wednesday; it isn't forecasting severe storms anywhere in the country today or Tuesday, and its Wednesday risk area is over the Plains, far from La Porte.